Monthly Market Update – January 2020

As we go into the new decade, the real estate statistics in GTA are showing signs of an upward trend. 87,825 transactions were made in 2019, a significant 13% increase compared to the decade-low we saw back in 2018. This upward trend was the highest towards the end of the year when sales went up 17% compared to the same period last year.

Compared To Decade Average

However, despite this increase, sales were still 4% below the decade’s average of 91,266 which comes as a result of the lower supply. In relation to this, monthly sales activities reached their 3-year high of 58%, along with the fall of months of inventory from 2.7 in 2018 to 2.1 in 2019.

As a result of these numbers, prices went up in the past month to an average of $819,319, which is 4% higher when compared to last year’s average. This comes as a positive change after prices declined for the most part of 2018, but still lower than the expected 5% increase.

Detached Homes Vs. Condos

A different trend compared to previous years was noticed in the sale of detached homes. After the double-digit decline we saw in the past two years, detached homes saw a large increase in 2019 when sales grew by 19%. The situation with semis/rows/towns is relatively the same as previous years, marking a steady rise of 14%. Condos saw a downward sales trend despite being the biggest new development when looking at the real estate market by property types. This should come as no surprise as condo supply remained relatively low in 2019 because most condo owners opt to hold their units as rentals instead of selling them.

The lower supply and the increased demand for properties resulted in the price of condos rising by 6,4%, outperforming the remaining property types and tightening the price gap between them. However, since new developments are still focused mainly on condos and the difference in price is just around the $100,000 mark, semis/rows/towns price is expected to appreciate faster compared to condos in the future.

Housing Price Range Sales

Because of the reduced purchasing power in the GTA area in general, we noticed the biggest increase in sales in properties priced in the $700k to $1.75 million range, specifically the $800k-$899k range, while the largest market share of the increase belonged to the $600k to $899k range. As expected, properties at the highest end of the market in terms of price (over $2 million) were still growing at a slower rate than in 2019.

Sales By Neighbourhood

When it comes to the neighbourhoods home buyers find most attractive, the leader this year was the York Region with a 20% sales increase, followed by 19% in Durham and 17% in Toronto East. Central Toronto on the other hand, had only a 3% growth in sales, which is relatively expected as supply is minimal, purchase power is declining and property types in the area are mostly condos being offered as rentals or high-end homes which are in the highest price range.

Many home buyers turned to areas with properties for sale in the middle price range of $600k to $899k such as the Peel Region and the City of Toronto, who marked a price growth of 6.1% and 8.6%, respectively.

When looking at the Toronto market, peripheral areas like Uxbridge, East Gwillimbury, Whitchurch-Stouffville and Georgina had a significant increase in sales by number, while the real estate market in Leaside/Thorncliffe Park, Agincourt, Rexdale and Southwest North York marked the biggest increase in median price.

The Start Of A New Decade

By analyzing these statistics, we can see how the GTA real estate market is developing and ever-changing. Market activity keeps on increasing as we see more influx of people, while the price gaps are disappearing, which sets the tone for a very interesting new decade for the real estate market.

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